Provisional confirmation cards

9 September 2026. Agentic Confirmation Maturity Model discussion draft v0.2. Scores apply to exact claims, not significance or probability. No jointly adopted standard, external review, other-model check or formal-language proof is asserted.

MD-local-cokernel-v1

Claim: For the specified generic local 2-3 map, the even vector-space cokernel has basis indexed by integer triples summing to -1, normal form (11), and source-torus action (13). Primitive-root detecting functionals extend as in (12).

Band: M10-19. Complete candidate proof, exact generic relation certificate and finite rational controls. Self-audit does not meet the independent-checking gate.

Evidence: Correct-sided algebraic identity; explicit integral lattice inverse; charge recurrence; separating rational dual family. These are complementary parts of one proof, not independent proofs. No empirical score is applicable.

Dependencies and distance: Garoufalidis-Yu’s inspected preprint supplies the move formula and conventions. The side certificate is reconstructed here. New substantive steps are the charge-slice reduction and construction of a dual family identifying the cokernel. This route is more than a one-step modification of an accepted theorem. The global refinement corollary additionally depends on their all-input compatibility and the prior Lab detector/normal-sector chain; those branches have separate anchor burdens. An exact weighted B is withheld rather than inferred from only the shortest branch.

Next confirmation gate: Independent reconstruction of the generic quotient proof and source-to-native convention bridge. A Lean/Rocq/Isabelle proof of the finite certificate alone would not verify the spanning or global topological claims.

NS-exceptional-all-v1

Claim under investigation: The actual native F is nonzero for every 1-efficient triangulation of the solid torus or T^2 x I.

Band: M0-9, unchanged. Two starting controls and a conditional directed-refinement extension do not establish the universal claim. The new local cokernel is an obstruction to a shortcut, not evidence of global vanishing.

Next decisive gate: Evaluate or detect the native functional on the surviving resonant slice after the actual exterior edge relations are imposed, or supply an intrinsic disk/product construction. No connectivity or local-to-global survival is assumed.

Retained conditional theorem

NS-1efficient-v1 remains M10-19: the previous nonexceptional 1-efficient cokernel bound is unchanged, with its published topology and internally checked native bridge dependencies intact. No new independent review is supplied by this attack.